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The end of 2025 unexpectedly brought back the balance of supply and demand in freight transportation. After several years of a crowded market and low rates, the situation has changed dramatically, GoCDL.us informs.
What happened:
- Powerful Q4 2025
Holiday volumes + winter storms in the Midwest and Northeast have led to severe capacity shortages. - Refusals on tenders have soared
The tender rejections index reached 13.24%, a level that usually signals an increase in bids. - Spot rates increased by almost 19%.
From $2.32 per mile in mid—November to $2.76 by the end of December, the most in several years.
Who benefited from it:
Owner-operators and small fleets operating on the spot benefited the most. For brokers, the increase in rates has become a challenge: spot is their cost. ‘
Why has the market become so sensitive:
— The withdrawal of long-lived carriers from the market
— Stricter regulation
— The absence of the “December pause”, which usually cools the market
What awaits the industry in 2026:
Demand remains uncertain, but the market has become much more sensitive to any disruptions.
This increases the likelihood of jumps in spot rates above contractual rates, revision of routing guides, and local “mini-peaks”.
Photo David Dibert, Pexels